One Person With A Pencil And A What If?

One person with a pencil. I guess that’s me. Can’t spell to save my life but give me some numbers and I’m almost happy.

After a recent NCHA Facebook thread about changing the amateur status of some aged events, an age old question came immediately into my head. How long is a piece of string?

Well let’s look at what needs measuring, I’m not looking for exact but I like to hone in on trends that work. I’d call them “what if’s?”

Accountants might call it a cost analysis, me well it was always what if?


What if we could lift our sales and reduce our costs what would be our bottom line? This is a common approach with any business and is the first what if? to be taught at business school.

Without all the information at hand this “What if?” is purely based on speculation. Pencil, paper, trusty calculator at hand and a few educated guesses. This is a big whatif?


Current ncha membership Not known. Let’s say 1500 full members

Number of members that own a 2019 futurity entry. 1500 members /124 entries = 8.3%

Number of members that are non pros with a futurity entry? Not known / 60 entries.

Number of members that are amateur/non pro with a entry ? Not known /27 entries.

Number of members that only entered the amateur. ? Not known/1 Entry

Number of all 2019 ncha aged entries membership 1500/ all aged event entries 414 = 27.6% of membership.

Given that some of these are multiple entries by the same member or same entry entered multiple times, this will make that 27.6% somewhat smaller. This is a conservative approach.

With all the NCHA investment over the last couple of years I’m sure they have enough bells and whistles at hand to be able to break down the information required for a informed discussion and decision.

My Thoughts

The recent post about tweaking the Amateur rules for some aged events is more about wants and needs. Do we want tweaks or do we need change?

Have a read of NCHA rule book it is available on the NCHA website.

The amateur ruling does not reflect our circumstances. The reality is that a $75,000.00 ceiling the non pro/amateur hall of fame inductee level makes I guess 90% eligible as amateur.

The only exclusion are those non pros above 75k, the hall of fame and those that are married to a trainer or work in industry. Under the current rules if a two go round and final amateur aged event were to happen it could decimate the non pro events.

My biggest takeaway from the focus group meeting held in Toowoomba and before the strategic plan came about was the moderator saying that the biggest issue for the NCHA was being unable to be all things for all members.

A strong amateur base is a great idea and needs developing to assist new cutters in aged events and weekend shows. Rather than the proposed tweaks, what if we had the numbers and had a total review of all classes?

Just the thoughts of a man with a pencil.

Al Hunter

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